Differing dynamics driving carbonate growth

A new report from market analysts Canadean​ shows that while North America and Central/South America remain the largest and second largest consumers of carbonates, the market growth rates, penetration of low calorie drinks, type and size of packaging and use of distribution channel there are noticeably different.

Accounting for a combined 56 per cent of total world consumption, the Americas are vital to the global carbonates industry. North America is totally dominated by the US, which is easily the largest single market, exceeding its nearest international rival by more than 250 per cent.

But the maturity of the US market means that growth there is slowing. Consumption has grown only modestly in recent years and is actually expected to dip slightly in 2003, fuelled by a continued decline in the major cola and lemon-lime categories. However, increasing concerns over obesity and the associated health implications have helped low calorie alternatives grow rapidly across all flavours, giving new impetus to the market, according to Canadean. Indeed, many new product launches are now quickly followed by a 'diet' version.

In contrast, Central/South America is still developing, but there are definite signs that the market may be approaching maturity. This said, in the short term at least, the market looks like increasing at three times the rate of its North American neighbour.

Another major difference is found in packaging. Where carbonates in North America are sold almost exclusively in non-returnable packs - and almost entirely in cans in the US market - almost a third of packaging used in Central/South America is refillable. In Mexico and Brazil, the region also boasts the second and third most important national markets.

Away from the Americas, consumption patterns are different again. Eastern Europe is now firmly established as the world's most dynamic region, according to the report, growing by almost 45 per cent in the last six years. This is due in no small part to the popularity of affordable local flavours which have helped what Canadean calls the 'other' segment (i.e. not cola or lemon-lime) achieve a share of throat that is some 50 per cent higher than the global average.

Conversely, the penetration of low calorie carbonates is very poor as consumers appear to be far more motivated by price than health.

Western Europe remains the third largest region and is predicted to grow by around 1 per cent per annum over the next three years. Ireland and Norway are among the leading markets for carbonates in this region - indeed, both are ranked in the global top ten in terms of per capita consumption.

It is not surprising, then, that the multi-serve pack is the most popular in western Europe, with a market share approaching 70 per cent, far higher than the overall average. This is not only a reflection of the high per capita consumption rates in some countries in the region but also of the strong off-premise distribution channel and powerful multiple retailers.

The report, Global Carbonates Report 2003​, predicts that the global carbonates market will expand slightly in 2003 and by a further 7 per cent by 2006.