The Index Report findings, to be presented at the European Fruit Juice Association (AIJN) Juice Summit, in Antwerp, Belgium, on October 12 and 13, identify key market trends driving 100% juice in both established and emerging markets, including new brands, new recipes and new segments.
India, Indonesia & Malaysia
Dennis Jönsson, president/CEO, Tetra Pak, told Beverage Daily, the forecast shows slowing decline in established markets, while China and Brazil grow.
“China is now the world’s eighth biggest market, consuming 545 million litres in 2015 – but that’s just 8% of the size of the US at number one, which has been declining by 2.6% for the past three years,” he said.
“China is expected to continue to grow at 7.7% CAGR to 2018, but will be outpaced by Brazil, which by then will also feature in the global top 10. This reflects the increasing significance of Latin America, which has shown the biggest growth in the last three years as the growing middle class trade up from home-squeezed to packaged juice: it has grown by more than 12% a year, although from a relatively low base.
“The same factors are driving growth in other hotspots, such as India, Indonesia and Malaysia, identified by Mintel as the fastest growing markets in terms of total volumes. The combination of such growth and slowing decline in established markets is forecasted to stabilise 100% juice, returning it to growth going forward – albeit marginal at 0.1%.”
Jönsson added a useful guide for exploring current penetration and scope for future growth is per capita consumption.
He said, even allowing for the drop in total volumes, in 2015, US consumers drank more than 6.7 billion litres of 100% juice, under a third of the worldwide total. Per capita, that amounted to 20.9 litres per person per year, the fourth highest globally after Canada (30.1 litres per person per year), Norway (25.4) and Germany (21.7).
By contrast, China’s per capita consumption is 0.4 litres per person per year, suggesting despite its double-digit growth, the industry is only scratching the surface of the opportunity.
Africa, Middle East, Latin America
The fastest growing markets per capita between 2010 and 2015 can be found in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. While many of these started from a low base, some are emerging as key markets, driving sales and innovation. Also, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa and Saudi Arabia.
Not from concentrate (NFC) is gaining share from reconstituted, up from 25.6% in 2009 to 28.9% in 2015. This is despite its higher price point, reflecting the trend for natural, less processed products, and ‘premiumization’.
Global average prices per litre for reconstituted juice declined by 0.3% CAGR 2009-2015, while NFC prices grew at 1% CAGR 2009-2015.
“Volumes of NFC sales are also increasing in many countries, including those where overall juice consumption has dropped,” said Jönsson.
“In Germany, for example, NFC 100% juice sales grew by 4.1% between 2012 and 2015, and are projected to grow a further 3.8% by 2018, while overall volumes decline. The trend is even more marked in Canada and South Africa.
He added there is now a real gulf in pricing in some markets: in the US, the premium segment starts at $7 per litre, more than double the price of the value segment, which is less than $3. Despite this, in the US as in Europe, the growth is at the high end, demonstrating the willingness of consumers to pay for products that meet their needs.
“Particularly strong performers are the new breed of “cold pressed” juices and smoothies with strong health and wellness claims and often organic and artisanal credentials, typically targeted at affluent Millennials,” he said.
In terms of taste, the report found orange remains the dominant flavor, with 6.9 billion litres sold in 2015 and a 46% share of the 100% juice market.
Apple juice is second, with 17% of sales, but both are seeing a decline, while the health-conscious option of mixed vegetable has risen to become the fourth most popular.
Cranberry and mango have also seen significant growth, albeit from a much smaller base.
“But outstripping them all in growth is coconut water, which has exploded from a niche to a fashionable mainstream product in just a few years,” added Jönsson.
“A global phenomenon, it’s an example of the opportunities that exist for innovations that both meet modern consumer needs and capture the imagination.”