A new NIQ Perspective report ‘Signals of demand: Mature markets in transition not decline’ argues that value growth driven by pricing “masks a harsher truth.” This is that volumes are falling globally, consumption occasions are changing and the consumer is becoming more deliberate about when, how and why they drink.
Despite describing the market as facing one of the “most structurally challenging periods” NIQ believes there are opportunities as “Mature markets aren’t declining, they’re transitioning.”
However, the market is facing challenges. The top markets in alcoholic beverages by value, the US, Germany, UK, France, Poland are all in decline. US Beer is down -5.7%, US Wine -6.9%, US Spirits -3.9%. Germany is showing similar or steeper falls across all categories. Only Brazil (+2.8% Beer) and Mexico (+2.7% Beer) are growing volume among the leading markets, NIQ said.
Globally the beverages market delivered 4% value growth in the year to Q4 2025. However, NIQ said the growth tells a more “nuanced story’ as non-alcoholic beverages are doing the “heavy lifting” for the category globally.
It cited that non-alcoholic drinks hit $418bn in global value sales, up +6.3%, with Latin America posting +11.8% and North America +8.1%. By contrast alcoholic beverages generated $208bn in value, a decline of -0.6%.
In the off-premise, the primary growth driver is price rather than volume, with it being most pronounced in mature Western markets, where category volumes are declining even as value remains supported by mix and premiumisation.
NIQ highlights that sales through retail represent $845bn globally, up +3.5% in value year-on-year when adjusted for price. While the on-trade accounted for a further $222bn, holding broadly stable in value terms despite lower footfall. (Source: Source: RMS data for On premise as of Q1’26 (18 markets), CGA OPM data )
However, it is not all bad news.
RTDs (ready-to-drink) or alcoholic pre-mix are driving real growth with value sales increasing by 9.8% and volume by 6.3%.
In South Africa, RTDs account for 52% of all alcoholic beverage volume gains, while in Europe, the category is driving new household recruitment and market penetration, NIQ concluded.
The report said that brands with RTD exposure or the capability to enter the market have a clear volume opportunity within the off-premise in mature markets.
While footfall has fallen in the on-trade (-3.4% year-on-year), average monthly consumer spend is holding at $127.06. At the same time the willingness to pay more for quality is increasing.
Tequila, Vodka, and premium Spirits sub-categories are showing value growth even as overall Spirits volumes fall.
According to NIQ the evidence is that consumers who still go out are choosing more deliberately and spending more when they do.
“The global beverage alcohol market is in transition. Volume is under pressure in established markets, consumer occasions are shifting, and the rules of engagement in the on-premise are centred around occasion ownership,” said Bilal Habib, Beverage & Alcohol Industry Lead at NIQ.
“Yet within that complexity lies opportunity. The brands that are growing volume today are doing so by strategy: by owning the occasions consumers are returning to, by showing up with relevance in a fragmented attention landscape, and by building equity that justifies both price and trial.”
Jonny Jones Managing Director, On-Premise NIQ said that consumers are not leaving the alcohol category.
“They are becoming more selective about when, where, and what they drink. Brands that own those moments, and give consumers a reason to choose them specifically, are growing volume even in markets others have written off.”
