According to the latest IWSR data, global tequila volumes rose at a CAGR of +6% between 2019 and 2025 and are expected to expand at a CAGR of +2% to 2030, an uplift on the +2% volume gain recorded last year.
However, a crowded tequila market in the US, which dominates with two thirds of market volume, is seeing in a slowdown with flattening figures in 2024-25 which are predicted to dip slightly.
Ultra-premium is the only price band growing strongly, albeit at a slower rate than recent years. Volumes rose +7% in 2024-25, capping a +31% CAGR gain since 2019. The price tier’s share of US tequila volumes has nearly tripled from 6% in 2019 to 17% last year and is expected to reach 21% by 2030.
Meanwhile, super-premium tequila is contracting sharply, with volumes down -6% in 2024-25, and a further CAGR decline of -5% forecast to 2030.
At the same time, premium is gaining ground with volumes up +1% in 2025, which may mean that the category ‘sweet spot’ is shifting towards accessible premium products, IWSR said.
Tequila’s number two market, Mexico has spent the past several years in a period of relative stagnation, but there are new signs of a revival with a +3% gain in 2024-25. Growth is expected to continue with a forecast CAGR gain of +3% to 2030.
IWSR said that standard and premium products are spearheading this recovery while, value and low-priced products are losing market share.
“The 2026 FIFA World Cup should provide a meaningful near-term tailwind for tequila in Mexico,” said Jose Luis Hermoso, Research Director Central and South America at IWSR.
“Meanwhile, a slower US tequila market and much lower agave prices for tequila production will mean more focus by brand owners and producers on the domestic scene, which was neglected in the past when tequila was booming in the US.”
However, as the US tequila market cools there is a host of small emerging markets that are driving volume sales.
At the forefront of this is India which stands out as the single fastest-growing major destination, although from a lower base. Volumes expanded at a CAGR of +32% between 2019 and 2025, grew by +34% last year and are predicted to rise at a CAGR of +13% to 2030.
Another market highlighted by IWSR is Colombia, which is expected to register CAGR volume growth of almost +5% to 2030 following a period of rapid expansion, including a +26% volume gain in 2024-25.
Other markets highlighted by IWSR include Nigeria, (2019-25 volume CAGR of +48%); Türkiye (+19%,and forecast CAGR of +8% to 2030); and Japan (+12%, plus forecast CAGR of +7% to 2030).
However, tequila’s future is also being shaped by the agave supply cycle as well as consumer behaviour.
“The agave supply cycle suggests that raw material costs could ease meaningfully within three to five years as current over-planting becomes ready to harvest,” explains Hermoso.
“The centre of gravity is not shifting away from the US, but the category’s growth story increasingly depends on what happens outside it. Promising markets outside the US and Mexico – India, West Africa, Türkiye, Colombia and Japan – are at very different stages of development. That creates both an opportunity and also a sequencing challenge for brand owners in the months and years ahead.”
