Ingredient supply concentration: Overview
- A handful of regions dominate production of key global ingredients, creating major supply chain vulnerabilities
- Climate change is the biggest common threat, driving drought, heat stress, pests and lower yields
- Geopolitical instability is disrupting supplies of ingredients such as acacia gum and saffron
- Companies are diversifying sourcing and investing in alternatives to reduce dependence on risk hotspots
- Global demand for many ingredients still relies heavily on just one or two producing countries
Many of the world’s key ingredients are concentrated by region or even by country. While this can provide key benefits to these sectors, it also exposes ingredients to shocks.
Which ingredients are most heavily concentrated by region, and what shocks are they exposed to?
1. Cocoa – West Africa
Most of the world’s cocoa is is still produced in West Africa, particularly in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. According to Crédit Agricole, a French bank, around 75% of the world’s production was concentrated there as of 2023, before the cocoa crisis hit.
Pressures in these countries have led to sustained price rises for cocoa that have now lasted for more than two years. Not only the impact of climate change – heat, drought and weather variation – but also crop pests such as the swollen shoot virus and even the economic hardships of farmers have caused prices to shoot up.
Production is diversifying, with alternative locations, such as Ecuador, being explored. Diversification in terms of region has not been enough, however, and many chocolate companies are also looking at chocolate alternatives.
2. Cranberries – North America
The overwhelming majority of cranberries are produced in the US and Canada, according to the World Population Review. The cranberry plant is concentrated here because it cannot be grown in all regions of the world, it says.
Despite their geographical concentration, cranberries are popular around the world. According to market research platform Grand View Research, Europe had a global market share of more than 35%, despite accounting for almost none of their production.
Cranberries, like many other commodities, are also under threat from climate change. According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), temperatures in the Northeast of the US, in areas such as Massachusetts, are rising, with farmers facing competition from colder climates.
3. Palm oil – South East Asia
Palm oil is concentrated in South East Asia. More than 86% of production occurs in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is in spite of the fact that the crop originates in West Africa.
Palm oil is the world’s most widely used vegetable oil, according to the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO). It is used widely in items ranging from pizzas, doughnuts and chocolate to shampoo and toothpaste.
Like many commodities globally, palm oil faces production challenges from climate change. The palm oil sector may lose millions of dollars in profit due to the impacts of climate change, suggests Bram Hadiwijaya, head of the sustainability research department at the palm oil production company PT SMART.
4. Acacia gum – ‘Gum Belt’
Most acacia gum, which is used, among other things, as an emulsifier in soft drinks and to make sugar-free coating for chewing gum, is grown in Africa’s ‘gum belt’, just south of the Sahel region where the Sahara desert meets sub-Saharan Africa.
Before the current civil war in Sudan, around 70% of this was grown in the country, according to the French Agency for Development (AFD). However, years of civil war have put constraints on supply. Armed groups have been hindering transport routes and increasing traceability challenges. According to journalists on the ground, armed groups are demanding ransoms to let the gum travel.
Despite this, ingredient suppliers such as Alland & Robert are sticking with the country, arguing that to pull out now would put millions of livelihoods at risk.
5. Vanilla – Madagascar
More than 80% of the world’s vanilla is concentrated in Madagascar, according to World Population Review.
Although vanilla is used globally, only around 1% of use is accounted for by vanilla flavour from natural vanilla beans. According to market research platform Mordor Intelligence, the global vanilla market was worth $4.11bn (€3.66n) as of 2026.
Vanilla is also vulnerable to climate change. Research has suggested that rising temperatures could force vanilla plants and the insects that pollinate them into different habitats, therefore threatening production.
6. Saffron – Iran
Around 90% of saffron is grown in Iran, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). This is in part because of its dry, semi-arid climate, which is good for the crop.
Of course, the country is also at war. The war has led to the price of the commodity spiking, reported the BBC earlier this year, largely due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent restrictions on exports. Yet saffron has always been pricy, often earning the title of the world’s most expensive spice. According to Encyclopedia Britannica, it takes 75,000 saffron flowers to make one pound of the spice.
Saffron production is embedded in rural traditions, according to the FAO, especially in Iran’s Khorasan Razavi and South Khorasan regions, and supports the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of farmers.
7. Quinoa – Peru and Bolivia
The overwhelming majority of the world’s quinoa is produced in Peru and Bolivia, according to World Population Review.
Despite its geographic concentration, however, quinoa is quite adaptable to different agro-environmental conditions, according to the FAO. It could even provide an alternative to countries suffering from food insecurity due to climate change.
Despite its heavy concentration in the Andes mountains, quinoa production is now being expanded. According to the FAO, some cultivation is now seen in more than 70 countries.
8. Açaí – Brazil
Açaí, a fruit commonly used in drinks and desserts, has become globally popular in recent years. As of 2024, the açaí berry market was valued at $1.5bn (€1.3bn), according to Grand View Research. Yet production still takes place overwhelmingly in its native Brazil.
Brazil accounts for more than 99% of global production, according to the USDA. Even in Brazil, production is heavily concentrated, with more than 93% grown in the state of Pará in the north of the country.
This is in spite of the fruit’s global popularity. According to Grand View Research, açaí has seen strong popularity beyond Brazil. North America, for example, accounts for nearly 30% of the global market, which takes into account both food and non-food products.
9. Hazelnuts – Turkey
Turkey is responsible for around 70% of the world’s hazelnut production, according to World Population Review. The nut has its origins in Anatolia, the peninsula on which the majority of the country is situated, according to the FAO. Hazelnuts are grown in eastern and western Turkey along the Black Sea, in areas where the soil is unsuitable for other crops.
According to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), hazelnut supply in Turkey is vulnerable to heat waves, severe storms, and shifting rain patterns, which it links to climate change.
Globally, the hazelnut market was worth around $9.4bn (€8.36bn) as of 2024, according to Grand View Research. The nuts are well known for their inclusion in dessert spreads such as Nutella.
10. Almonds – US
Around 80% of the world’s almonds are grown in California in the US, according to the certification body Rainforest Alliance. California’s climate makes it a good growing location for the nuts.
The annual pollination of California’s almond orchards is the largest managed pollination event in the world, according to the Encyclopedia Britannica.
Almonds have often been perceived as being a particularly thirsty crop, needing significant quantities of water, although agricultural innovations have worked to reduce this. In the past, water shortages in California have sometimes got so bad that farmers have been forced to rip out their trees, reports Bloomberg
