Weather patterns have become increasingly erratic over the last few years. And coffee is a particularly sensitive crop: affected by even relatively small swings outside normal conditions.
Heat alone is an enormous factor: temperatures above 30°c are harmful to arabica, the world’s dominant coffee species.
Earlier this year, analysts from independent research group Climate Central found that the world’s key coffee producing countries saw 57 days more of coffee-harming heat, on average, between 2021 and 2025 (Brazil, Vietnam, Columbia, Ethiopia and Indonesia make up 75% of global coffee production).
But it’s not just the heat. Hailstorms and floods also play havoc on coffee plantations: as was seen in Brazil last year. In Vietnam, the problem has been floods and persistent rain.
Any dramatic weather changes bring problems.
Brewing problems
Most consumers are in the eye of the storm: completely unaware of the issues swirling around their daily cup of joe.
But for those in the coffee industry it’s a different story.
Climate change is creating growing uncertainty for coffee producers, explains Colin Hall, co-founder of UK brand Cupper’s Journey (the coffee company offers a curated collection of premium single-estate and single-origin African coffees: all with a cupping score of 84 or above under the Speciality Coffee Association’s grading system).
“Weather patterns are becoming far less predictable, with longer dry periods, shifting rainfall and more extreme weather events affecting harvests and crop quality,” he says.
“Coffee is a particularly climate-sensitive crop, so even relatively small environmental changes can have a significant impact on yields and flavour profiles.”
It’s not just about the annual harvests. Unexpected weather events create wider concerns around soil health and water availability. And all this puts increased pressure on growers financially.
”This is no longer a future challenge for the industry... many producers are already having to adapt their farming practices in response to changing conditions," says Hall.
Coffee prices
The weather has another big impact: coffee prices.
Coffee prices have been on a roller coaster ride : and this uncertainty shows no signs of abating.
And, while other issues such as tariffs and global disruption to supply chains have played a part, the biggest factor has been the weather.
“There’s more volatility in weather patterns,” explains Oliver Broster, senior manager, coffee analysis, at Expana.
“Whereas we would expect anomalous weather events once every 10 years, in the last five years we’ve had three. So these things are coming closer together.”
That, in turn, creates an unpredictable flow of supply, demand and stock: each which create a headache for procurement and play havoc with supply chains. And all that impacts coffee prices.
“With that volatility, there’s more problems,” added Broster.
Keeping calm in the storm
So what can coffee brands to do weather the storm?
Coffee brands have a responsibility to think beyond buying coffee and think about how they can support long-term sustainability at origin, says Colin Hall of Cupper’s Journey.
“One of the most important things brands can do is build direct, transparent relationships with producers and commit to paying fair, sustainable prices that give farmers the financial stability to invest in climate adaptation measures,” he said.
“There’s also a huge role for education, collaboration and long-term partnerships. Supporting growers with access to agronomy expertise, regenerative farming practices, water management systems and climate-resilient crop strategies can make a real difference.”
Certification such as Fair Trade now puts increased emphasis on climate resilience, noting that climate-driven extreme weather events affect farmers’ production capabilities and capacity. B Corp also puts environmental measures at the heart of its certification.
There are other options to explore. Robusta is emerging as a new, hardier, species: which is better able to withstand the rigours of changing conditions (Uganda’s coffee industry, for example, has built up its expertise in Robusta, which now is helping it thrive with a more resilient crop).
Meanwhile, rediscovering wild coffee species could offer new hope to coffee farmers. These are species that, with the dominance of robusta and arabica, have been left forgotten for decades. But these could offer new levels of climate resilience and disease resistance, or the ability to grow in previously unsuitable areas.
