Future of coffee summary
- Climate change increasingly threatens Arabica yields and shifts suitable regions
- Farmers adopt irrigation, shade trees and improved varieties to manage climate stress
- Robusta expands globally as resilient production and demand steadily increase
- Rising input and traceability costs make future coffee prices notably higher
- Coffee alternatives grow slowly while traditional brewed coffee remains deeply resilient
Coffee is one of the world’s favourite beverages – only tea and water are consumed more.
Yet like so many of the world’s major crops, coffee is under threat from climate change, with growing conditions at sourcing locations shifting and threatening yields.
Coffee prices reached record highs in 2025. While they have now fallen, this decline is likely far from permanent.
What is the future of this beloved beverage? How will both production and consumption change in the years to come?
Arabica under threat, but unlikely to be phased out
There are two main types of coffee: Arabica and Robusta. As its name suggests, Robusta is more robust, and therefore less vulnerable to changes in growing conditions. While both are threatened to some extent by climate change, Arabica faces greater pressures.
“Arabica is highly vulnerable to climate stress“, explains Camila Bonilla Cedrez, climate and environmental specialist at Dutch multinational bank Rabobank. In growing regions such as Brazil, hotter spells and delayed rains have disrupted bean development, leading to lower yields and quality.
Crop pests and diseases also thrive in warmer temperatures, adding to the risk to the crop, says Jon Trask, CEO of agricultural technology company Dimitra.
Arabica relies on very specific growing conditions, requiring a narrow range of temperatures. These growing conditions are changing. Around 8% of Arabica-growing areas are already climatically unsuitable, says Rabobank’s Cadrez, and this could rise to 20% by 2050.
“Unsuitable”, she explains, does not mean that the coffee cannot be produced in these regions, but only that production will be more difficult. Many farmers are producing Arabica in ‘marginal’ zones, using shade management, irrigation and better varieties to help the crop along. “In other words, suitability maps signal risk, not the end of production.”
Could Arabica be phased out entirely? This is unlikely, according to Cadrez. However, growing regions may change. Arabica is already being pushed upwards, into higher, cooler areas that can still support its growth.
Existing growing regions in Colombia, Ethiopia and Kenya have seen resilience because they are so high, whereas lower-lying regions in Brazil, Central America, India and Vietnam are facing greater strain.
Meanwhile, growing practices are being adapted. “Growers are adopting heat‑and-drought‑tolerant varieties, irrigation, shade trees, and soil‑management practices that deepen root systems and improve water retention”, explains Cadrez.
“These measures do not eliminate climate risk, but they significantly reduce yield losses and volatility.”
Ethiopia is a particular success story. Rabobank estimates that growing areas suitable for Arabica will go from 39% to 50% by 2050.
Robusta could be “stabilising anchor” for the global coffee market
Robusta will not be affected as severely by weather patterns as Arabica.
“Robusta is naturally more tolerant of heat, drought, and disease”, explains Cadrez. “This has made it more resilient during recent climate shocks, particularly in Brazil, where it has outperformed Arabica under rising temperatures and erratic rainfall. While climate change is also affecting Robusta, its production systems are evolving rapidly, supported by irrigation, mechanisation, and investment.”
While Arabica growing areas are being pushed upwards by climate change, explains Cadrez, Robusta is expanding into warmer, lower-altitude regions. In Brazil, it’s being grown in degraded pasturelands, allowing production to proliferate without land-use change.
Around 71% of Brazil’s Robusta area is already irrigated, and irrigated Robusta is projected to reach 360,000 hectares by 2040, up from 280,000 hectares today.
As well as irrigation and traceability systems, Robusta’s growth is being driven by demand for Robusta-based products. Robusta could be a “stabilising anchor for global coffee supply”, as volatility increases, suggests Cadrez.
Robusta is expected to expand to West and Central Africa, and Southeast and northern Asia, explains Dimitra’s Trask.
Will coffee remain accessible to consumers?
With all these major fluctuations on the ground, will the average consumer still be able to afford coffee? Could impacts on growing areas make their way through the coffee supply chain?
“Coffee will remain widely consumed, but not at the low price levels people were used to”, says Julia Bluech, senior specialist in food and agribusiness, specialising in consumer foods, at Rabobank.
Along with climate pressures, rising input costs and European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) traceability requirements will keep pushing up the costs of production.
In particular, Arabica supply for consumers and brands may become more volatile, suggests Rabobank’s Cadrez.
“Supply may become less uniform, more origin specific, and more dependent on long‑term investment."
Nevertheless, coffee is a beloved drink and these pressures are unlikely to pose an existential threat to the sector.
“Consumers are adapting. Whole‑bean coffee is currently Western Europe’s best‑performing format, growing in both value and volume as households continue to ‘trade up at home’ while still spending less than in cafés. So while coffee won’t feel ‘cheap,’ people won’t give it up – the daily ritual is resilient even as prices shift."
Coffee alternatives could even ease pressure on the industry. They are already seeing interest. “With climate volatility and cost pressure rising, companies are exploring beanless options as a way to build some resilience into their portfolios”.
Coffee alternative start-ups are attracting funding, and even major players, such as Japan’s Asahi, known in the West mainly for beer, are dabbling in the sector.
And yet, predicts Bluech, alternatives are unlikely to replace traditional coffee entirely.
“The core cup isn’t going anywhere. Coffee carries an origin story, a flavour signature and a daily ritual that people won’t easily give up. Alternatives may find a limited foothold in formats that sit further from the bean – like RTDs, cold brews, hybrids – but they won’t displace brewed coffee. If anything, they offer a safety net, not a replacement for your morning cup.”
What will coffee look like in 2100?
Coffee is certainly changing. But despite pressures, a radical collapse in consumption is not likely.
In 2100, coffee may be grown in different regions, use more resilient and hybrid varieties and use more digitalisation, says Dimitra’s Trask. Robusta may take a more prominent role, and Arabica may be more specialised.
However, coffee will still be cultivated. The world’s third most popular drink is not going anywhere.
