After a volume decline in 2025, Heineken has now seen a welcome uptick. Its Q1 volumes grew 1.2% (consolidated volumes down 0.2%) while net revenue increased 2.8%.
And premium brands performed particularly well: with volumes up 5.8%, and with brand Heineken notching 6.9% growth.
It’s still a challenging market for Heineken, which announced a massive round of job cuts earlier this year after a difficult 2025.
But while the beer market and global supply chain remains difficult, Q1 has not thrown up any unwelcome surprises. Heineken’s share price has dipped this morning: but not plummeted. The company reaffirms its full year guidance: expecting to see operating profit grow between 2% and 5% in 2026.
Iran impact
The global beer category faces several challenges: people are drinking less in general, while also looking to newer, flavourful alternatives such as canned cocktails.
Heineken is not alone in facing these challenges: fellow European heavyweights AB InBev and Carlsberg also saw volumes decline in 2025.
But Heineken has felt the challenges particularly acutely and in February announced it would cut between 5,000 and 6,000 jobs over the next two years: equating to around 6% of its workforce.
CEO Dolf van den Brink also attributed efficiencies from AI and digitalisation as a reason for the cuts.
Heineken Q1
- Total volume grew 1.2%, with consolidated volume down 0.2%, and licensed volume up 26.1%.
- Net revenue grew 2.8%, net revenue per hectolitre up 3.0%.
- Heineken gained or held share in around 60% of our markets.
- Premium volumes grew 5.8%, led by brand Heineken up 6.9%.
- Global brands volume up 5.7%, with Amstel and Desperados growing by a high-single-digit.
- Mainstream volume declined slightly
- Low and no alcohol grew double-digit led by Heineken 0.0 globally and Maltina in Nigeria.
- Beyond beer volume grew mid-single-digit, led by Desperados globally and Bernini at Heineken Beverages.
But since Heineken announced the job cuts, a new challenge has also been added into the mix: the conflict in Iran.
For Heineken, this has created uncertainty with the potential of higher energy prices and supply shortages in particular markets. The transport of raw materials has become more expensive, as has that of shipping beer. Meanwhile, the price of energy affects everything from brewing operations to the cost of making glass bottles.
And the biggest worry is that, with higher costs themselves, consumers will spend even less on beer.
“Since the start of the year, global trade has become more complex and volatile, with impacts on energy availability and costs in certain markets,” said van den Brink.
“This leads to inflationary pressures, which might affect consumer sentiment in the medium-term.”
The company says it is ‘monitoring developments closely and actively navigate the year with different evolving scenarios.’
However, its outlook is based on the ‘assumption of a temporary rather than prolonged disruption in global energy trade’.
The search for Heineken's next CEO continues
Dolf van den Brink is due to step down on May 31 , after almost six years leading the company, although he will remain available to the company in an advisory capacity for eight months after this.
There was no news on the search for his successor in the company’s Q1 statement. A new CEO could help revitalize the company, with analysts speculating that 'perhaps a change at the top is what Heineken needs '.
Given the turmoil of 2025, James Edwardes Jones, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, says Heineken’s Q1 results are ‘reassuringly uneventful’.
“Overall, Heineken’s Q1 trading was fine, although we note its beat on top-line growth was entirely driven by price,” said Jones.
“Full year guidance is maintained – with consensus being at the mid-point of the guided range) which noting inflationary pressures may affect consumer sentiment in the medium term.”
