Emerging markets are key engine for global alcohol drinks growth, analyst

According to Euromonitor’s newly published alcoholic drinks data 2010, global alcoholic drinks volumes grew by more than 1 per cent compared to 0.3 per cent growth in 2009.

Marlous Kuiper, the head of alcoholic drinks research at Euromonitor told BeverageDaily.com that emerging markets were less affected by the recession and those that were affected bounced back much quicker that the developed markets.

Emerging markets​

“Sales in Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America reaffirm their bullish credentials and are the key engine for global alcoholic drinks growth at the same time that North America, Western Europe and Eastern Europe are still in recessionary mood as far as the industry is concerned,”​ she said.

Euromonitor found that China in particular continues to impact the global market with 50 per cent of all forecasted absolute volume growth coming from the country.

The importance of Asia Pacific is also seen when looking at company performances with the UB Group set to become the leading spirits producer by volume in 2011, she said.

On-trade growth ​

As the popularity of socialising outside the home increases throughout China, on-trade's volume share continues to gradually increase, she said. In 2010 on-trade volume growth is higher than off-trade, however the off-trade channel still dominates.

In Russia both channels suffered in 2010, but the off-trade suffered as a result of the implemented 200 per cent beer excise tax hike, which affected off-trade retail price significantly.

The on-trade, however, managed to absorb the increase by reducing its own mark-ups and keeping prices relatively stable, said the analyst.

“The global on-trade 2 per cent total volume growth rate for 2010 is driven by skyrocketing sales in Asia Pacific, where volumes are set to post a 6 per cent increase during the year,”​ said Kuiper.

The analyst said on-trade is set to increase by 3 per cent in Latin America. In Africa and Middle East, overall alcoholic drinks volumes are set to post a 5 per cent increase.

Emerging middle classes, westernisation and aspirational consumption are fuelling the renewed resurgence of on-trade, according to the analyst.

The reversal of the recessionary shift to the off-trade is “far from uniform”​ Kuiper said, with on-trade growth rates continuing to plummet in Western Europe, Eastern Europe and North America. However, the rate of the slump has been relatively moderate.

“Belt tightening, trading down and minimising the number of outings appear to be solidifying their status as the new norm for cash-strapped middle classes counting their pennies,” ​she said.

Wine trends​

In Asia Pacific, wine retained its strong growth trajectory in 2010, “Primarily on the back of still light red grape variants’ perceived beneficial cardiovascular properties and the embrace of western drinking habits by the scores of upward mobile young urbanites,”​ said Kuiper.

“Non-grape wine also retained its bullish performance leveraging on traditional credentials and economising propositions,”​ she added.